Trump shock waves ripple through fragmented G20

RIO DE JANEIRO — The leaders of the world’s largest economies will be gathered together in the same room Monday in what could be a unique opportunity to address the wars and crises rippling across the globe.
Yet they have never appeared further apart, or less conversant in the same language.
China’s Xi Jinping, United States President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders will be attending a summit of the Group of 20 whose agenda includes combating global hunger, reforming international institutions, and climate change.
But that’s not all they’ll be discussing.
“The real topic is Trump’s arrival,” said a diplomat from a Western European country who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. The G20 “could become a cacophonic echo chamber of the different blocs, rife with rumors, with everyone just listening to his own voice.”
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will not be there — but his presence will loom large as diplomats scramble to figure out how an isolationist America will accelerate divisions in the group, and who will fill the leadership vacuum left by Washington.
While United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer might want to wear that mantle, most are intrigued to see whether Beijing, Washington’s archrival, will take more of a leadership role.
“It’s possible that the Chinese will try to kill off the G20 … It’s something to watch out for, they are careful and advance step by step,” said Michel Duclos, former French ambassador to Syria.
“In their mindset, what’s important is the China-U.S. relationship, the G7 and the BRICS,” he added.
Already, alliances are shifting. Argentina’s chainsaw-wielding president Javier Milei wants a closer relationship with Trump, whose disdain for multilateralism is well known. Milei now appears emboldened and is blocking negotiations on the G20 final communiqué, according to two diplomats from G20 nations. And he’s found a new friend in Macron, as the French leader tries to salvage the G20 statement and desperately looks for ways to tank the impending EU-Mercosur trade deal.
After being the focus of intense negotiations at last year’s summit in New Delhi, Ukraine is unlikely to focus minds in Rio de Janeiro amid already deep divisions.
“What’s the point of getting our negotiators to deploy considerable energy on geopolitical language?” asked an official from the Elysée Palace in a briefing to journalists. “We know that we won’t get any progress at the G20.
“We prefer to have nothing than a weakened text” on Ukraine, she added.
Nonetheless, Western leaders will be at pains to put on a brave face and keep up appearances. Downing Street said Starmer will use the summit to call on allies to “step up their support” or “face unfathomable consequences if Putin wins.”
On Sunday, the U.S. granted Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles to strike Russia.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has made a point of refusing to give long-range weapons to Ukraine, has also promised to bring the war-torn country’s plight to the fore, according to a a statement from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week.
But in the days that followed, Scholz called Russia’s President Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years, shortly after Trump’s election victory, in a move that opened “Pandora’s box,” Zelenskyy said Saturday.
It was a sign, according to the same Western European diplomat quoted above, that a realignment is already taking place and will affect the G20.
“Trump’s impact is incredibly visible: There are new cease-fire talks in Lebanon, Scholz is now calling Putin,” he said.
“It’s like something powerful just happened and we are starting to see accelerating shock waves across the globe.”
On Sunday, Macron slammed talk of disagreements at the G20 in comments made to reporters before boarding his flight to Rio de Janeiro. “We need to stop this dance routine of saying there’s no agreement about Ukraine with Russia in the group,” he said. “It’s not like the G7, where we are among democracies, there are very different regimes in the G20.”
But that was after he met with Milei in an apparent effort to pressure European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to cancel the EU-Mercosur deal. Von der Leyen and Lula met later that day and discussed the pact.
Trump’s victory makes the future of the G20 uncertain, as the president-elect has made it clear he privileges transactional, bilateral relations with other countries rather than consensus-building through international organizations.
“It’s a more difficult world, I don’t think Trump will share the same goals as Biden,” said Creon Butler, former G20 deputy sherpa for the U.K. government.
Trump aside, Butler sees even more fragmentation at the G20, with four groups emerging: the U.S.; other G7 countries, along with South Korea and Australia; the “Global South”; and Russia with China.
“Ironically, we will need the G20 more than ever,” he said.